Imakethe Yezindaba Zakamuva

IQINISO-HLOLA ISIQINISEKISO (Okubhekwayo): [Izibalo ezisemthethweni: 7 imithombo] [Amawebhusayithi kahulumeni: 3 imithombo] [Iwebhusayithi Yezemfundo: 1 umthombo] [Kusuka kumthombo: 2 imithombo]

13 September 2021 | Ngu Richard Ahern - Izibani eziyisixwayiso ziyakhanyisa okubonisa ukuthi kungase kube isikhathi sokuphuma emakethe yamasheya manje! 

Ochwepheshe abaningi bakhathazeka ngokuthi ukuphahlazeka kwemakethe yamasheya kungase kugwemeke ngenxa ye-cocktail yezindaba ezimbi zezomnotho.

Selokhu kwaphahlazeka imakethe yamasheya ngoMashi 2020, lapho ubhubhane luqala, imakethe yamasheya yaseMelika ibilokhu yenza inzuzo ngemuva kokuthola inzuzo. I-S&P 500 ukufinyelela okuphezulu kwezikhathi zonke ngaphezulu kwama- $ 4,500 futhi NASDAQ 100 ikhuphuka ngaphezu kuka-$15,600, kodwa zonke izinto ezinhle kufanele zifike esiphethweni.

Lokho kuphetha kungaba manje...

Kunezizathu ezinhlanu ezikhathazayo zokuthi kungani kungase kube yisikhathi sokuthengisa amasheya bese uphendukela kuzo ezinye izimpahla ngaphambi kokuba inzuzo yakho oyisebenze kanzima isulwe.

Ake singene ngaphakathi…

1) Sinemakethe yamasheya enamagwebu

Sike saba semakethe yezinkunzi futhi izimakethe zinenani eliphelele; zonke izindaba ezinhle ezingenzeka zibhakwe emananini aholela kulokho abatshalizimali abakubiza ngokuthi amagwebu emakethe.

Lelo gwebu lidinga ukuthi ekugcineni linqanyulwe, amanani angeke aqhubeke ekhuphuka, sizophelelwa yizindaba ezimnandi.

Usomaqhinga omkhulu wemakethe enkampanini yokuhweba iMiller Tabak, uthe ukulungiswa "kusobala" njengoba kubonakala sengathi izimakethe amagwebu amaningi.

Imakethe inenani lamanani alindelekile ekukhuleni kwe-GDP kulo nyaka, kodwa i-GDP yonyaka ozayo ngokungangabazeki izoba ngaphansi.

Ngokombono wokulinganisa, i isilinganiso semakethe ku-GDP ratio, evame ukwaziwa ngele-'Buffett indicator', isezingeni eliphezulu ngaphezu kuka-200%. Ngamanye amazwi, imakethe yamasheya yase-US iyabiza uma iqhathaniswa ne-US GDP, futhi esikhathini esidlule, lokhu ngokuvamile kubonisa ukuphahlazeka kwemakethe yamasheya.

Masithole ubuchwepheshe...

Ngokombono wezobuchwepheshe, inkomba yamandla ahlobene yezinyanga eziyi-14 (RSI) ye I-S&P 500 iqinile kububanzi 'okuthengwa kakhulu', okubonisa ukuthi imakethe kufanele ilungiswe. Esinye isibonakaliso sokuthi imakethe 'ithengiwe ngokweqile' ukuthi ishadi lanyanga zonke lithinta ibhendi ye-Bollinger ephezulu, isilinganiso sobuchwepheshe esisebenzisa ukuchezuka okujwayelekile ukuqhathanisa amanani.

Umthamo wamasheya athengiswa ku-S & P 500 nawo ubonakala wehlile ngenkathi inkomba ihlangene ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule, okubonisa ukuthi imakethe yezinkunzi ilahlekelwa umusi.

Nayi isivumelwano:

Uma izimakethe zisesimweni lapho zenze khona intengo kuzo zonke izimo zezindaba ezinhle, ngisho nezindaba ezincane ezingathathi hlangothi zingabangela ukwehla kwemakethe yamasheya.

Kuyinto elula engenakugwema, lapho amanani enyuka, kufanele ekugcineni ehle ngokwengxenye, lena yindlela izimakethe ezisebenza ngayo ngemijikelezo.

Amanani aphezulu ngokwawo ayakhathaza.

2) I-Federal Reserve ihlehla

I-Federal Reserve izoqala ukubuyisela emuva imizamo yayo yokuvuselela ngo ukunciphisa ukuthengwa kwayo kwebhondi Uhlelo.

Uhlelo lokuthenga ibhondi ye-Fed lunikeza imakethe isamba esikhulu semali engenayo eningi elungele amasheya.

Ngeke kuqhubeke unomphela... 

I-Fed ngokungangabazeki izoba njalo ukhathazekile ngokwenyuka kwamandla emali, ukwehla kwamandla emali kakade kuyakhula futhi ngohlelo lokuthenga ibhondi le-Federal Reserve lumpompa izimali ezengeziwe emakethe, lapho amaketanga okuhlinzeka asevele enwetshiwe, kungase kube inhlekelele.

John C.Williams, umongameli weFederal Reserve Bank yaseNew York, waveza ukuthi i-Fed ingase iqale ukususa ukusekelwa komnotho ekupheleni konyaka, ngisho noma imakethe yemisebenzi ingathuthuki.

Kuyakhathaza ukuthi ngo-Agasti, umnotho wase-US udale inani eliphansi lemisebenzi ezinyangeni eziyisikhombisa ngenxa yokuvela kabusha kwe-COVID-19 delta ethinta umkhakha wezokuzijabulisa.

Kukhona okuningi…

Ukwengeza ku Umsebenzi ukukhathazeka, Kusho uBiden ukuthi izinkampani ezinezisebenzi eziyi-100 noma ngaphezulu kufanele ziqinisekise ukuthi abasebenzi bazo bayagonywa (noma bahlolwa masonto onke) kungabangela abantu ukuba bashiye imisebenzi yabo. I-Biden ukugunyaza imigomo yabasebenzi bombuso, osonkontileka bakahulumeni, kanye nabasebenzi bezempilo nakho kungaholela ekuphumeni ngobuningi kwabanye abasebenzi.

Izimali ze-Fed's liquidity pool sezivele zinenani lentengo ezimakethe, uma imali iqala ukuncipha kanye nokuntenga kwemakethe yemisebenzi, sizolungiswa noma isimo sokuthengisa sibi kakhulu.

I-Fed kumele iguqule uhlelo lwayo lokuthenga ibhondi, okuyinto engenakugwemeka.

3) Ukusimama komnotho kuhamba kancane

Kunokukhathazeka kokuthi ukusimama komnotho kungenzeka kuhamba kancane; isikhuthazo esincane kanye nokukhathazeka mayelana Covid-19 ukwahluka kwe-delta konke kwenza abatshalizimali babe novalo.

Izintengo eziphakeme zezimakethe ngokwengxenye zibe ngenxa yokuvulwa kabusha komnotho, kodwa uma sesivulwe kabusha ngokugcwele, ngeke silindele ukukhula okusheshayo okuqhubekayo.

Selokhu kwenzeka imakethe yamasheya yokugcina ngo-2020, izimakethe 'zixhaswe' yiFederal Reserve kanye nohulumeni, bekufanele kube ngenxa yalolu bhubhane.

Lapho lezo 'props' ze-Fed kanye nohulumeni zikhishwa, ngubani owaziyo ukuthi izimakethe zizosabela kanjani ngaphandle kwaleyo nethi yokuphepha.

Ukukhathazeka mayelana nokusabalala kwe-delta variant nakho kumayelana nokuthi, uma kuqhubeka ukusabalala, singase sibe sesimweni lapho kufanele sivale izingxenye zomnotho futhi.

Ngokuvulwa kabusha kwenani eliphansi, ukubuya ekuvaleni kungaba yinhlekelele kubatshalizimali futhi kungaholela ekwesabeni okusabalele.

Kuya ngokuya kuba kubi…

Kusukela kamuva nje abatshalizimali abaningi bezitolo bangene emakethe, ngezinhlelo zokusebenza ezifana ne-Robin Hood enikeza ukufinyelela okulula kumakethe yamasheya. Inkinga ukuthi laba batshalizimali abadayisayo ababona ochwepheshe futhi ngokuvamile banolwazi oluncane ngomnotho kanye nemakethe yamasheya.

Ochwepheshe abaningi bakholelwa ukuthi ukuphahlazeka kwemakethe yamasheya ka-2000 kwakuyingxenye ngenxa yabadayisi abangenalwazi abangena emakethe ukuze bathole imali esheshayo.

Inkinga laba batshalizimali bezitolo bayatatazela ngokushesha ngoba abanaso isipiliyoni, okungaholela ezingozini ezijulile ezimakethe.

4) Amazinga enzalo angase akhuphuke

Uma umnotho ushisa ngokweqile ekusebenziseni imali eningi, okuzodala ukwehla kwamandla emali, i-Fed ingase inyuse izinga lenzalo ukuze inqande ukusetshenziswa kwemali futhi ikhuthaze ukonga.

I-Biden ubesenkingeni yokuchitha imali kukahulumeni, elima izindodla zemali emnothweni. Lapho leso sikhuthazo sifika ezandleni zabantu baseMelika, ngendlela yamasheke okukhuthaza, bayasichitha.

Ukwenyuka kokusetshenziswa kwemali kudala isidingo esengeziwe, esingase sicindezele uxhaxha lwempahla futhi kwenyuse amanani, okungukuthi, ukwehla kwamandla emali. Ukwehla kwamandla emali kubi kakhulu kubantu baseMelika, ngoba kwehlisa inani lemali, buka nje ukuthi ukwanda komnotho amanani kaphethiloli kulimaze isigaba sabasebenzi.

Ukwehla kwamandla kufanele kuncishiswe ibhange elikhulu. Bazoqala baqophe uhlelo lwabo lokuthenga ibhondi, abavele belwenza; uma lokho kungenele bazophokophela ukukhulisa inzalo.

Amazinga enzalo athinta imakethe yamasheya.

Uma amanani enyuka, kudala isidingo esiningi samabhondi ngoba ukubuyisela kukhanga kakhulu, kodwa lokhu kusho nokuthi amabhondi ancintisana namasheya. Isivuno esikhangayo sizocindezela abanye abatshalizimali ukuthi bathengise amasheya abo futhi batshale kumabhondi kahulumeni esikhundleni salokho.

Ingxenye yesizathu esenza ukuthi imakethe yamasheya ikhuphuke kusukela kamuva nje ukuthi abatshalizimali bathola imbuyiselo encane kangaka ekutshalweni kwezimali kusuka kumabhondi, amabhondi okwamanje ayitshalomali elimpofu, ngempela, Isivuno sase-US seminyaka engama-30 ishintshele ku-+1.95%.

Amanani enzalo bebelokhu bephansi isikhathi eside, kusukela ngenhlekelele yezomnotho yango-2008, eye yabhebhethekisa imakethe yezinkunzi ezitokisini.

Uma amanani enyuka, kuzoba nokudluliswa okukhulu kwezimali ezivela emakethe yamasheya futhi ziye emakethe yebhondi okuholela ekuweni kwemakethe yamasheya.

5) Ukukhathazeka ngokwezwe

Ukuphahlazeka kwemakethe yamasheya okuzayo kungase kuqalwe isimo esishubile se-geopolitical. NgamaTaliban aphethe i-Afghanistan kanye nokwanda ingozi yokuhlaselwa kwamaphekula, kunodonga lokukhathazeka oluzokwenza abatshalizimali bakhathazeke.

The Isimo sase-Afghanistan akukaze kwenzeke, futhi ikusasa libukeka lingaqinisekile, ukungaqiniseki kubi ezimakethe.

Isimo sase-Afghanistan siphinde siveze ukukhathazeka kwezomnotho e-US. AmaTaliban manje alawula i-1-3 trillion yensimbi yomhlaba engavamile e-Afghanistan kanye China kungenzeka ukuthi izosebenzisana namaTaliban ukuwakhipha.

Uma i-China ithola izandla zayo ezinsimbi ezifana negolide, isiliva, ithusi, ne-zinc, lokho kuzobanikeza inzuzo enkulu yezomnotho kunezinkampani zase-US ezimbonini ezifana nama-semiconductors, electronics, kanye ne-aerospace.

I-Afghanistan nayo igcwele i-lithium, insimbi eyisiliva ebalulekile ekukhiqizeni amabhethri avuselelekayo asetshenziswa ezimotweni zikagesi. Lokhu kuzonikeza izinkampani zezimoto zikagesi zaseShayina inzuzo enkulu kunezinkampani zase-US, zonke izindaba ezimbi zemakethe yamasheya.

Ezinye izindaba ezimbi...

Kukhona nokukhathazeka mayelana nesimo se-China ne-Taiwan, esidala ukungaqiniseki ngaphakathi kwemboni ye-semiconductor.

I-Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) iphethe imboni ye-semiconductor, ibalwa ngaphezu kwama-50% we isabelomali sezimali semiconductor Foundries emhlabeni wonke. Izinkampani zase-US ezifana ne-Apple, i-Nvidia, ne-Qualcomm zikhiphela ukukhiqizwa kwazo kwe-chip kwabasunguli be-TSMC.

Uma kuphakama ukungqubuzana phakathi kwe-China ne-Taiwan, lokho kungase kuphazamise kakhulu uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwe-semiconductor okungagcina kulimaze izinkampani ezifana ne-Apple ne-Nvidia okuyizintandokazi ezimakethe zamasheya.

Ngempela, i-Apple inkulu kakhulu Ingxenye ye-S&P 500, ephethe ngaphezu kuka-6% wenkomba enemali yemakethe elinganiselwa ku-$2.5 trillion!

Kodwa-ke, izehlakalo ze-geopolitical azihlali zinomthelela omkhulu emakethe yamasheya, kodwa ngezinye izikhathi izehlakalo eziguquguqukayo, njengoba sisanda kuba nazo, zingabangela abatshalizimali ukuthi bathuke futhi badayise ngenxa yokungaqiniseki.

Okubalulekile:

Amasheya anenani eliphelele futhi kukhona i-cocktail yokukhathazeka ngekusasa, lokhu kusho ukuthi ingozi iphezulu kakhulu kanye nezintengo.

Abatshalizimali kufanele baqaphele futhi bahlukanise imali noma okungcono ezinye izimpahla uthango ngokumelene inflation kungase kube ukuhlakanipha ukunciphisa ingozi.

Sidinga usizo LAKHO! Sikulethela izindaba ezingahloliwe ze MAHHALA, kodwa lokhu singakwenza kuphela ngenxa yokusekelwa ngabafundi abathembekile njengalokhu WENA! Uma ukholelwa enkulumweni yamahhala futhi ujabulele izindaba zangempela, sicela ucabangele ukusekela umgomo wethu ngokuthi ekubeni umlandeli noma ngokwenza a umnikelo owodwa lapha. I-20% ye KONKE izimali zinikelwa kumakadebona!

Lesi sihloko singenzeka ngenxa yethu kuphela abaxhasi nabaxhasi!

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