| Ngu Richard Ahern - Udidwe yizo zonke izinhlolovo ezahlukene? Sihluze udoti ukuze sembule idatha engaphekiwe mayelana nokuthi ubani ozowina ukhetho lwango-2024 uma lungenziwa namuhla.
I-poll entsha iphuma nsuku zonke, ngokuvamile iphikisana neyangaphambili, futhi abezindaba banomkhuba wokukhetha labo abahambisana ne-ajenda yabo.
Silahlile izinhlolovo ezichemile ezixhaswe izinhlangano zezepolitiki, salahla izinhlolovo ezisebenzisa isampula elingameleli umphakathi, futhi sasebenzisa kuphela ulwazi oluvela abavoti balinganisiwe “B” naphezulu.
Nakhu esikutholile:
Ngasohlangothini lweDemocrat, kubukeka sengathi uJoe Biden uzongenela ihlandla lesibili yize esengaphezu kweminyaka engama-80 futhi ekhombisa izimpawu zokuthi ukuwohloka kwengqondo. Abanye abangase bangenele ukhetho kuDemocratic Alliance abakaze bacatshangelwe kakhulu ezinhlolovo eziningi, okushiya iphini likamongameli uKamala Harris njengowukuphela kwendlela esebenzayo.
Abanye abangenele ukhetho lweDemocratic Alliance abafana noHilary Clinton noBernie Sanders bavote kabi kakhulu lapho beqhudelana noBiden noma uHarris. Isibonelo, kubantu abadala abangama-891 ababuzwayo, uHarris uthole amaphuzu ayi-11 ngaphezulu kukaClinton, kodwa inhlolovo ehlukile yenza ukuthi uBiden adilize uHarris ngo-41% -12%.
Inqobo nje uma bengakwazi ukugcina uMongameli Biden ephapheme futhi eqotho, uyithuba elihle kakhulu amaDemocrats analo ekugcineni ubumongameli.
Ngasohlangothini lweRiphabhulikhi, kujabulisa kakhulu ngabantu abaningana abaphonsa izigqoko zabo eringini. Kodwa-ke, empeleni umjaho wamadoda amabili phakathi kwalowo owayengumongameli, uDonald Trump, kanye nombusi wamanje waseFlorida uRon DeSantis.
URon DeSantis usanda kuqinisekisa inhloso yakhe yokugijima ngokuqala umkhankaso wakhe ngengxoxo no-Elon Musk efakwe ku-Twitter Spaces. Ngeshwa, umcimbi ubukhungethwe yizinkinga zobuchwepheshe, umsindo nokuxhumeka kuyeka izikhathi ezimbalwa. Kusukela emcimbini, i-DeSantis manje okungathandeki kakhulu (41.1%) kunokuvumayo (41%).
Ngonyaka odlule uDeSantis wayevota kahle - ezinye izinhlolovo zikhomba ukuthi wayedume kakhulu kunoDonald Trump.
Lowo muzwa uhlehliswe ngokushesha:
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Amavoti ayinhloko eRiphabhulikhi
Trump vs DeSantis 2024 poll
Ukuvota kwakamuva kakhulu kubonisa lokho trump ungophambili weRiphabhulikhi, kanti i-DeSantis ilahlekelwe yithemba ngaphambi kokuthi kuqale umkhankaso. Ukuvota kukazwelonke manje kukhombisa igebe elikhulu phakathi Trump kanye noDeSantis, lapho uTrump ethole ngaphezu kuka-50% kwathi iDeSantis yacwila cishe ku-20%.
Ngokudabukisayo kwamaDemocrats, ukuhlaselwa kwezomthetho kwakamuva okubhekiswe kuDonald Trump kuqinise ukwesekwa kwakhe ngumphakathi. Emiqondweni yabavoti, amacala asenkantolo cishe aqinisekisa izinkolelo zabo zokuthi uTrump uyisisulu sokuzingelwa kwabathakathi.
Isilinganiso sokugunyazwa kukaTrump siphinde sakhuphuka ngemuva kokubusa a I-CNN ihholo lomuzi, lapho ebonakale esezingeni eliphezulu - umehluko omkhulu kumongameli wamanje. Lo mcimbi othathe ihora kuthelevishini ukhombise ukuthi lowo owayengumengameli usathandwa ngabavoti beRiphabhulikhi, isixuku sijabule futhi sihleka sonke isikhathi.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuthandwa kukaMbusi waseFlorida uRon DeSantis ngamaRiphabhlikhi kwehle kancane kancane, njengoba imibiko mayelana namandla akhe asobala aphansi kanye nokuntuleka kobuntu okubusa izihloko zezindaba. Abavoti bazizwa ngendlela efanayo— UTrump uthole u-9% ephakeme lapho abantu abadala bebuzwa ukuthi ubani “onothando,” ngokusho kwe-YouGov.
Kodwa-ke, uDeSantis uthole ukwesekwa yindoda yesibili ecebe kakhulu emhlabeni, u-Elon Musk. Nakuba uMusk engazange amgunyaze ngokusemthethweni, uye waveza ngokuqinile kanjalo.
Imibiko iphinde ikhombise ukuthi iDeSantis iqongelele isikhwama esikhulu somkhankaso esicishe sibe yizigidi eziyi-100 zamaRandi, futhi ne-CEO ye-Twitter u-Elon Musk ohlangothini lwakhe, leso sikhwama singakhula ngokushesha.
Ekugcineni, abavoti baphethe amandla, futhi uma eqhathaniswa ngqo noTrump, uDeSantis ubonakala ehluliwe.
Inhlolovo yakamuva evela ku-Economist ikhombise uTrump ebusa iDeSantis ngamaphesenti angama-32 kuprimary Republican. Ngokunjalo, inhlolovo yakamuva evela ku-Morning Consult ikhombise uTrump ehola iDeSantis ngama-38%.
Ekupheleni konyaka odlule, imiphumela ibiqinile kakhulu, kanti ezinye izinhlolovo zikhombisa uDeSantis ehamba phambili. Isibonelo, inhlolovo eyenziwe yiSuffolk University ikhombise uDeSantis ehola uTrump ngama-23%, kanti iThe Economist kanye noYouGov bamenze wahola owayengumongameli ngama-8%.
Kodwa akuyona yonke indaba leyo:
Amavoti okhetho lukamongameli lwango-2024
Lawo ma-poll akhombisa kuphela ukuthi ngubani ozowina i-primary Republican - kuthiwani ngowangempela ukhetho lukamongameli? Ecabanga ukuthi uJoe I-Biden iyasebenza, uDeSantis ubonakala ewinile - kodwa ngamajini amancane.
Ngaphandle kokuchema kwesobunxele sokuvota kwamanyuvesi, iNyuvesi yaseQuinnipiac yayineDeSantis ehole kancane iBiden ngo-1% okhethweni lukazwelonke. Ngokuphambene nalokho, inhlolovo efanayo ibinoBiden ehola uTrump ngo-2% uma ukhetho belubanjwe namuhla, ngokusho kwabavoti ababhalisile.
Sekukonke, ukuvota okhethweni lukazwelonke kukhombisa ngokusobala ukuthi iMelika ihlukaniswe ngama-50-50 - izinombolo zisondele kakhulu. I-YouGov ine-Biden vs. DeSantis ngokulingana ncamashi kodwa ibeka u-Trump ku-2% ngaphambi kukamongameli wamanje.
UJoe Biden uzobe eneminyaka engama-82 ngonyaka ka-2024, kepha ngokusho kwabavoti, uyithuba elihle kakhulu amaDemocrats analo lokuwina elinye ihlandla. Okuxakayo ukuthi inhlolovo ebizwa ngokuthi i-Harris Poll ithi uTrump uphethe uKamala Harris okhethweni lukazwelonke ngamaphesenti ayi-11.
Uma kwenzeka iphini likamongameli, uKamala Harris, engenele ukhetho, ngokusho kwabavoti ababhalisile, unethuba elingcono lokubhekana noRon DeSantis, evamise ukuvota ngisho nombusi waseFlorida.
Okuwukuphela komphikisi u-Harris omhlulile ezinhlolovo umbusi wangaphambili waseNingizimu Carolina, u-Nikki Haley we-Republican - nokho u-Haley ubelokhu enza inhlolovo engaphansi kuka-10% ku-primary Republican.
Nakhu okusemqoka:
Imininingwane ikhomba impinda ka-2024 phakathi kukaBiden noTrump, kodwa okwamanje, iMelika ihlukene phakathi. Izinombolo zisondele kakhulu ngeke ukwazi ukubiza owinile ngalesi sikhathi. Lowo muzwa cishe uzohlala uzinzile kuze kube usuku lokhetho - okusho ukuthi ivoti ngalinye libalulekile!
Sidinga usizo LAKHO! Sikulethela izindaba ezingahloliwe ze MAHHALA, kodwa lokhu singakwenza kuphela ngenxa yokusekelwa ngabafundi abathembekile njengalokhu WENA! Uma ukholelwa enkulumweni yamahhala futhi ujabulele izindaba zangempela, sicela ucabangele ukusekela umgomo wethu ngokuthi ekubeni umlandeli noma ngokwenza a umnikelo owodwa lapha. I-20% ye KONKE izimali zinikelwa kumakadebona!
Lesi sihloko singenzeka ngenxa yethu kuphela abaxhasi nabaxhasi!
Joyina ingxoxo!